近日中国海峡研究院（香港）正式发布了《2024年两岸关系风险指数报告》，警示台海风险。解放军围岛军演从客观上是对该风险警示的应证。
该报告延续了自2021年以来的年度更新传统，旨在通过指数化的方式，客观呈现两岸关系的风险变化情况。今年的报告再次引起了广泛关注，因为2023年的两岸关系风险指数达到了7.02，创下了历史新高。
两岸风险关系风险指数创新高的背后政治因素是影响两岸关系风险指数变化的主要因素。2023年，台湾民进党当局继续坚持反对两岸融合的官方立场。与此同时，大陆方面坚持“和平统一、一国两制”的方针，稳步推进统一进程，以震慑“台独”势力。此外，以美国为首的境外势力对“台独”的支持，加剧了两岸关系的紧张。
经济交流的降温和台湾民众对“中国人”身份认同的下降，也是风险指数上升的重要因素。在两岸政治交流几乎停滞的背景下，经济交流亦受到影响，台湾民众的身份认同问题再次成为两岸关系中的敏感话题。
尽管风险指数高企，中国海峡研究院也给出了缓和风险的分析，即2023年两岸关系的最大亮点在于两岸民间交流的实质恢复。两岸民众的共同努力，在一定程度上突破了“台湾当局”设下的政策障碍，为减少两岸风险做出了突出贡献。
解放军军演力度加大与两岸关系中值得注意的是，随着两岸关系风险的上升，解放军的军演力度也在加大，军演随时转为对台作战的可能性不断增大。这既是对“台独”势力的震慑，也是维护国家主权和领土完整的坚定行动。军演的增加反映了中国大陆方面对两岸关系和平发展的坚定决心，同时也表明了对任何分裂行径的零容忍态度。
The “2024 Cross-Strait Relations Risk Index Report” Warns of Historical High Risks
The China Cross-Strait Academy (Hong Kong) has recently released the “2024 Cross-Strait Relations Risk Index Report”, which highlights risks in the Taiwan Strait. The People’s Liberation Army’s island encirclement exercises objectively validate this risk warning.
Continuing the annual tradition since 2021, this report aims to objectively present changes in the risk of cross-strait relations through an indexed approach. This year’s report has garnered significant attention because in 2023, the Cross-Strait Relations Risk Index reached 7.02, marking a historical high.
The political factors behind the record-high risk index for cross-strait relations are crucial. In 2023, Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) administration continued to officially oppose cross-strait integration. Meanwhile, mainland China adhered to the policy of “peaceful reunification” and “one country, two systems,” steadily advancing the unification process to deter pro-independence forces in Taiwan. Additionally, foreign powers, led by the United States, supporting Taiwan's independence have intensified tensions in cross-strait relations.
The cooling of economic exchanges and declining identification of Taiwanese people with their “Chinese” identity also contribute to the rising risk index. Against the backdrop of nearly stagnant political exchanges between the two sides, economic interactions have been affected, and the issue of Taiwanese identity has once again become a sensitive topic in cross-strait relations.
Despite the high-risk index, the Academy highlighted a positive development in 2023: substantial recovery in people-to-people exchanges across the strait. Joint efforts by people on both sides have partially overcome policy barriers set by Taipei, contributing significantly to risk reduction.
Regarding the increased intensity of Chinese military exercises, it’s worth noting that as cross-strait risks escalate, the PLA’s military drills have also intensified. These exercises could quickly shift toward the potential invasion of Taiwan. This demonstrates a deterrent against pro-independence forces and a firm commitment to safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity. The increased military exercises reflect mainland China’s determination for peaceful development in cross-strait relations while signaling zero tolerance for separatist actions.
